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Safety Recommendation Details

Safety Recommendation A-81-103
Details
Synopsis: ON MAY 19, 1980, NORTHEAST JET COMPANY LEARJET 25D, N125NE, CRASHED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE EN ROUTE TO NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA, FROM WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA. ABOUT 2 1/2 MINUTES AFTER THE AIRCRAFT WAS REPORTED AT FLIGHT LEVEL 430 IN THE VICINITY OF THE COVIA INTERSECTION ON AIRWAY J58, THE JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA, AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER RECEIVED AN UNUSUAL STACCATO SOUND TRANSMISSION OVER THE FREQUENCY, FOLLOWED 18 SECONDS LATER BY A REPORT FROM THE COPILOT, "CAN'T GET IT UP... IT'S IN A SPIN...." ABOUT 33 SECONDS AFTER THE FIRST STACCATO SOUNDS, RADIO AND RADAR CONTACT WITH N125NE WAS LOST ABOUT 104 MILES WEST OF SARASOTA, FLORIDA. FLOATING DEBRIS WAS LOCATED BY A SEARCH AIRCRAFT AND LATER RECOVERED; THE PILOT AND COPILOT WERE NOT FOUND. THERE WERE NO KNOWN WITNESSES TO THE CRASH.
Recommendation: THE NTSB RECOMMENDS THAT THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION: DEFINE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE AND UPPER FRONTS AS ANALYZED BY SOUNDINGS AND DEVELOP FORECASTING TECHNIQUES TO UTILIZE THE INFORMATION TO IMPROVE CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
Original recommendation transmittal letter: PDF
Overall Status: Closed - Unacceptable Action
Mode: Aviation
Location: Gulf of Mexico
Is Reiterated: No
Is Hazmat: No
Is NPRM: No
Accident #: DCA80AA013
Accident Reports: Northeast Jet Company, Gates Learjet 25D, N125NE
Report #: AAR-81-15
Accident Date: 5/19/1980
Issue Date: 9/24/1981
Date Closed: 6/1/1983
Addressee(s) and Addressee Status: United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Closed--No Longer Applicable)
Keyword(s): Weather, Turbulence

Safety Recommendation History
From: NTSB
To: United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Date: 6/1/1983
Response:

From: United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
To: NTSB
Date: 10/6/1982
Response: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NOAA) LETTER: WE RECOGNIZE THAT THE ART OF CLEAR AIR TURBULANCE (CAT) DETECTION AND PREDICTION IS FAR FROM PERFECT. IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORECASTING OF THIS PHENOMENON IS DEPENDENT ON DATA ACQUISITION BEYOND WHAT IS PRESENTLY AVAILABLE. THE TECHNIQUE AS PROPOSED BY THE NTSB HAS BEEN FOUND TO BE OF NEGLIGIBLE OR NO VALUE. WE FEEL THAT THE SOLUTION TO THE CAT PROBLEM CAN BEST BE ACCOMPLISHED THROUGH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, ENHANCEMENT, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY AND DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEMS.

From: NTSB
To: United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Date: 6/30/1982
Response:

From: United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
To: NTSB
Date: 1/29/1982
Response: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LTR: IN VIEW OF THE MICROSCALE OF THE NATURE OF CAT EVENTS, AGAINST A BACKDROP OF THE EXISTING SYNOPTIC SCALE OBSERVATIONS NETWORK, THE RELATIONSHIP, IF ANY, BETWEEN CAT AND "UPPER FRONTS" AS DEFINED BY THE NTSB HAS ALREADY BEEN FOUND TO BE OF NEGLIGIBLE OPERATIONAL VALUE. THE PRESENT DATA NETWORK IS MUCH TOO COARSE IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE SCALES TO ACCURATELY IDENTIFY AREAS OF CAT. THEREFORE, THE NWS WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A FORECAST METHOD DERIVED STATISTICALLY BY COMPARING A LARGE NUMBER OF CAT REPORTS TO CORRESPONDING SYNOPTIC PATTERNS, SOMETHING WHICH CAN BE MEASURED AND FORECAST, UNTIL A TRULY MORE EFFECTIVE OPERATIONAL METHOD CAN BE DEVELOPED.