Slide 32 of 39
Notes:
This Forecast of Future Accident Activity is another graphic, prepared by the Boeing Company engineers. It is a bit cluttered but there is an important message here. The left hand scale can be read as either millions of aircraft departures or as hull losses (a euphemism for accidents). Notice in the lower right that the world’s hull loss accident rate (in red) has leveled off for the last few years at about 1 loss per million departures. Also the green line which indicates millions of departures continues to climb. With a constant accident rate (red line) – and more and more departures (green line) – one can forecast that there will be more accidents per year. Hull losses for the past three years have been about 20 per year. We can expect that number to increase.
Also we should consider the number of transport airplanes currently in service. There are about 14,400. By 2016 we expect to see about 25,600 airliners operating worldwide. Again with a constant accident rate (the red line) and more than 10,000 new airliners joining the fleet, we can expect to see an increase in the number of accidents per year.
